Paraguay vs Australia preview: winner-takes-second Group D shootout

Group D's most consequential fixture comes last, as Paraguay host Australia at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara with second place on the line. Both sides sit on three points after splitting their opening results, though Australia hold the edge on goal difference at zero against Paraguay's -2.

Recent form

Australia stunned Turkey 2-0 before falling 2-0 to the United States, a result that exposed their limitations against elite opposition but confirmed their resilience. Paraguay were thumped 4-1 by the hosts, yet responded superbly to beat Turkey 1-0 with ten men after Miguel Almiron's red card, showing real grit.

Qualification scenarios

A draw would almost certainly carry both teams through, with projection models giving each side better than a 99 percent chance to advance if they avoid defeat. A loser, however, faces an anxious wait on third-place permutations. Australia's superior goal difference makes them slight favourites to secure the guaranteed spot.

Prediction: With so much at stake and both sides set up to avoid catastrophe, a cagey 1-1 draw that suits everyone bar Turkey looks the most probable result, ushering both nations into the knockouts.